Social Security In Jeopardy?

Once a year, the federal government publishes the annual Trustees Report on Social Security and Medicare. The 2026 edition uses career actuaries' best-estimate projections over a 75-year window. What it found is not comforting.

What the Report Found for Social Security

Social Security runs two trust funds. The OASI Trust Fund (retirement and survivor benefits) is now projected to deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032 — one quarter earlier than last year's estimate, reflecting a meaningful deterioration in the outlook. At that point, incoming payroll taxes would cover only 78% of scheduled benefits, falling to 62% by 2100. The combined OASDI fund depletes in 2034, leaving 83% of benefits payable. The program is already running a deficit: projected 2026 costs of $1,697 billion exceed income of $1,493 billion by $204 billion. Social Security has spent more than it collects in total income every year since 2021.

The one bright spot: the DI Trust Fund (Disability Insurance) is projected to remain fully solvent through 2100.

What Changed — and Why

The worsened outlook is driven by two demographic shifts. The fertility rate assumption was cut from 1.90 to 1.75 children per woman — fewer births today means fewer workers funding the system in two decades. Immigration assumptions were also reduced, with the long-run annual level trimmed from 1.35 million to 1.20 million. Slightly stronger near-term economic projections — higher productivity, better real wages — were not nearly enough to offset these headwinds.

Why This Report Matters

For individuals, it is the most credible long-range retirement planning signal available.

Social Security is a major source of income for most people living life in retirement. For many, it's the only source. Is this report warning us that social security benefits may not be guaranteed after 2032? What if it is and what would that mean for your retirement plan?

To learn more about preparing for retirement, potentially without social security, contact MNM Vested, LLC.